Trends in police complaints and arrests on New York City subways, 2018 to 2023: an interrupted time-series analysis

Roberts, Leah E.; Mehranbod, Christina A.; Bushover, Brady; Gobaud, Ariana N.; Eschliman, Evan L.; Fish, Carolyn; Zadey, Siddhesh; Gao, Xiang; Morrison, Christopher N.

Background
Public transportation use is influenced by perceptions of safety. Concerns related to crime on New York City (NYC) transit have risen following NYC’s COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration in 2020, leading to declines in subway ridership. In response, the most recent mayoral administration implemented a Subway Safety Plan in 2022. This study aimed to quantify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Subway Safety Plan on rates of complaints to and arrests by the New York City Police Department (NYPD) Transit Bureau.


Methods
Using publicly available data on complaints and arrests, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses using autoregressive integrated moving average models applied to monthly data for the period from September 2018 to August 2023. We estimated changes in the rates of complaints to and arrests by the NYPD Transit Bureau before and after: (1) the COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration (i.e., March 2020), and (2) the announcement of the Subway Safety Plan (i.e., February 2022). We also examined trends by complaint and arrest type as well as changes in proportion of arrests by demographic and geographic groups.


Results
After the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, there was an 84% increase (i.e., an absolute increase of 6.07 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 1.42, 10.71) in complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau, including a 99% increase (0.91 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.42, 1.41) in complaints for assault and a 125% increase in complaints for harassment (0.94 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.29, 1.60). Following the Subway Safety Plan there was an increase in the rate of arrests for harassment (0.004 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.001, 0.007), as well as decreases in the proportion of arrests for individuals racialized as White (− 0.02, CI − 0.04, − 0.01) and proportion of arrests in the borough of Manhattan (− 0.13, CI − 0.17, − 0.09).


Conclusions
The increased rates of complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic remained elevated following the enactment of the Subway Safety Plan. Further evaluation efforts can help identify effective means of promoting safety on public transportation.

Geographic Areas

Files

  • thumnail for 40621_2024_Article_501.pdf 40621_2024_Article_501.pdf application/pdf 354 KB Download File

Also Published In

Title
Injury Epidemiology
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-024-00501-9

More About This Work

Published Here
November 20, 2024

Notes

Crime, Transit, Assault, Time series, New York City