2024 Theses Bachelor's

The Failure to Ameliorate Grievances: Measuring Bargaining to Explain Intrastate Conflict

Ruppert, Matthew

This paper explores the causes of civil war onset at the ethnic group level. I argue that economic inequality between ethnic groups that fuels grievances and that the ability of potential rebels to reach a bargain with the state to address these grievances without resorting to violence are key explanations for onset. While these conditions will impact the likelihood of civil war onset independently, I theorize that that they provide the most powerful explanation together because easy bargaining moderates the effect of grievances. Ultimately, I show that economic grievances and the moderating effect of bargaining on these grievances hold poor explanatory power. Instead, conditions that make it easier to reach a bargain, most importantly an improved ability for the state to collect information about domestic happenings, reduce the likelihood of intrastate conflict.