2024 Theses Doctoral

Redistricting, Representation, and Perception: Three Essays on U.S. Local Politics

Novoa, Gustavo Francisco

This dissertation analyzes how redistricting, minority representation, and perceived polarization— three topics regularly studied at the national level—function at the level of local government. The first two chapters focus on city council redistricting.

In the first chapter, I used a new approach, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, to simulate city council district plans. By simulating tens of thousands of plans for each city, I was able to compare the plans that are actually implemented to a representative sample of all plausible plans. This analysis represents the first large-N geospatial analysis of city council redistricting. I found that the city council maps that are actually implemented feature more majority-minority districts than the median simulation. This implies that somewhere in the redistricting process, a conscious effort is made to foster minority representation.

In the second chapter, I merged city council map data with the results of city council elections. I then analyzed the relationship between the composition of districts and who runs and who wins in city council elections. I found that district-level demographic makeup continues to be the dominant factor in the supply of minority candidates. I also found that, comparing two cities that are otherwise demographically and politically similar, cities that fall under the Voting Rights Act (VRA) pre-clearance had more minorities run for office and win election on average.

In the third chapter, I conducted an original survey experiment to determine if respondents’ perceptions of partisan polarization differed in local contexts relative to the national political landscape. I did not find measurable differences in the perceived prevalence of support for different issues. However, I did find that respondents were slightly less willing to endorse generic language about partisans’ issue support when cued to think about ordinary voters in their local area. All together, these studies probe three different aspects of local electoral politics. In doing so, they help reconcile our understanding of electoral politics nationally with areas of local politics that still have many open questions.