2004 Articles

The Role of Climate Perceptions, Expectations, and Forecasts in Farmer Decision Making: Final Report of an IRI Seed Grant Project

Hansen, J.; Marx, S.; Weber, E.

Skillful seasonal climate forecasts reduce climatic uncertainty, but reduce livelihood risk to farmers only if the uncertainty associated with the forecast is accurately communicated and understood, and integrated into the decision process. Of the various determinants of application of seasonal forecast and resulting benefit to farmers, those related to content, communication and understanding are most under the influence of the forecast provider. Improved understanding of how target decision makers perceive and apply probabilistic climate information can inform the design of climate forecast information products and presentation protocols.
This project sought to extend previous research efforts with both a “front end” – mental models that influence climatic expectations and forecast applications – and a
“back end” – the decision processes in response to climate expectations derived from farmers’ mental models and externally-provided information. Research in this report
was motivated by three lines of social science inquiry: (a) the importance of subjective perception of risk, (b) differences in the impact of small-probability events when information about them is learned by personal experience over time as opposed to being provided as a statistical summary, and (c) the role of both material and non-material (including cognitive and affective) goals and processes in risky decision making. Specific objectives of the research.