2007 Articles

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts

Camargo, S.J.; Barnston, A.G.; Klotzbach, P.J.

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville Nicholls (1979) for the Australian region and William Gray (1984(a), (b)) for the North Atlantic region. Over time, forecasts for different regions, using differing methodologies, have been developed. Tourism in various regions, such as the US Gulf and East Coasts and the Caribbean, is impacted by these seasonal forecasts. Insurance and re-insurance companies also make use of seasonal forecasts in their policy decisions. It is fundamental to provide these users with information about the accuracy of seasonal forecasts. Seasonal forecasts have limited use for emergency managers, because of the lack of skill in predicting impacts at the city or county level.