2026 Theses Master's

Spatial and Operational Inequalities in Subway Performance: Incident Exposure, Service Reliability, and Rider Experience in New York City

Eta, Kelly

This thesis examines how subway performance varies across the New York City transit system, how these differences are distributed across neighborhoods, and how they are communicated to the public. Motivated by everyday observations of uneven travel conditions, the study investigates whether variation in service reliability reflects broader structural patterns within the system. Differences in crowding, trip duration, and waiting times across routes raised questions about whether these experiences are random or indicative of more systematic disparities in how the subway operates across the city.

The analysis first uses publicly available data to evaluate subway performance at the route level, examining relationships between land use, operational factors, and service disruptions. Using incident data spanning 2015 to 2026 and General Transit Feed Specification data, route level conditions are linked to Neighborhood Tabulation Areas to estimate neighborhood level exposure to incidents. This approach shifts the focus from isolated events to sustained exposure over time. The results show that exposure to disruptions is unevenly distributed, with certain neighborhoods consistently experiencing higher levels of unreliable service.

The study then evaluates how subway performance is communicated and experienced in practice through two targeted validation exercises and direct observations of rider behavior, station conditions, and platform level dynamics. These observations provide insight into how delays are encountered and interpreted by riders in real time. While service disruptions are consistently communicated across the MTA Service Status platform and the MYmta application, detailed operational data are not made publicly available in structured formats, limiting transparency and the ability to independently assess system performance.

Together, these findings highlight a disconnect between system level performance, data accessibility, and rider experience. Framed through an equity lens, the study demonstrates that subway reliability is not experienced uniformly across the city, and that differences in service conditions translate into uneven exposure to disruptions across neighborhoods. The thesis concludes by emphasizing the importance of improving both data transparency and the equitable distribution of reliable transit service within the New York City subway system.