2025 Reports

Data Analytical Solutions for Interpreting Bioenergetic Models and Predicting the Tipping Point of Exploited Small Pelagic Fisheries: A Case Study of Sergestid Shrimp

Cheng Ann, Chen; Shapawi, Rossita; Estim, Abentin; Demi Kawi, Stephenie; Abdul Basri, Najamuddin; Mustafa, Saleem

The significance of small pelagic fisheries in food security cannot be overemphasized. Sergestid shrimps are a prominent component of tropical fisheries. They have a vital role to play in energy flow and sustainable harvest of seafood. Natural stocks of sergestid shrimp are subjected to increasing pressures of urbanization in coastal zones that have diminished their resilience and increased vulnerability to a tipping point. Due to the complexity inherent in marine ecosystems and the non-linearity of responses, traditional incremental research should be supplemented by new approaches of data analytics and modelling to guide fisheries management under the domain of nature-based solutions. This will enable identification of problems requiring analysis of multiple dependent variables and understanding tipping points for possible remedial action in the face of challenges posed by climate change. Constructing a calibrated bioenergetic model for sergestid shrimp as attempted in this study places the energy flow in a broader context that provides the way forward in translating the organic productivity into predictions reflecting the condition of the targeted populations and the marine ecosystem. Any upheaval in the populations of such forage species is likely to produce a cascading effect on the marine ecosystem. A technically informed model of intervention in the form of: Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response is helpful in designing sustainable management of the sergestid shrimp resources.

Keywords: Pelagic shrimp, overfishing, urbanization, impacts, predictive analytics, nature-based solutions