Academic Commons

Articles

Seasonal forecasting of South African rainfall using a non-linear discriminant analysis model

Mason, Simon J.

Statistical models have been used to provide operational seasonal forecasts of rainfall over southern Africa since 1992. The Climatology Research Group has been using a quadratic discriminant analysis model since November 1994. The model relates rainfall over different areas of South Africa to principal components of sea‒surface temperatures in the Indian, South Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Details of the model are described in this paper. High forecast‒skill levels can be achieved for much of the country throughout the year. The mostly successful performance of the model over a 15‒year independent testing period indicates that the model can be used successfully in an operational environment.

Geographic Areas

Files

  • thumnail for Mason_SJ_1998_IJoC_18_147.pdf Mason_SJ_1998_IJoC_18_147.pdf application/pdf 377 KB Download File

Also Published In

More About This Work

Academic Units
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Published Here
March 24, 2020