Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America

Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Held, Isaac; Kushnir, Yochanan; Lu, Jian; Vecchi, Gabriel; Huang, Huei-Ping; Harnik, Nili; Leetmaa, Ants; Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Li, Cuihua; Velez, Jennifer; Naik, Naomi H.

How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.

Geographic Areas


  • thumnail for Seager_etal_Science_2007.pdf Seager_etal_Science_2007.pdf application/pdf 445 KB Download File

Also Published In

More About This Work

Academic Units
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Ocean and Climate Physics
Published Here
July 16, 2021