2018 Chapters (Layout Features)

Climate forecasts for early warning: up to six months in advance

Mason, Simon J.

In this chapter, we explore the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts to the health community. We begin by considering why the general weather conditions over a season might be predictable, before examining how seasonal forecasts are made, and why they are presented in a different way to weather forecasts. We then examine where and when seasonal forecasts work best, and emphasize that it is possible to make useful seasonal forecasts for health outcomes only in some parts of the world and for certain times of the year (and possibly only for some years). We also review some of the main sources of seasonal forecasts.