2026 Theses Master's

Economic and Statistical Analysis of Development Outcomes in New York City Department of City Planning Upzonings From 2003–2015

Rosman, Zachary

From 1980 to 2026, neighborhood upzonings initiated by the Department of City Planning (DCP) have reshaped New York City. Despite the central role that With Action Scenarios play in various environmental documents, such as Environmental Impact Statements (EISs), no examination has occurred with respect to these projections.

Therefore, to address this gap in the research, 63 DCP Neighborhood Upzonings initiated between 2003 and 2015, with build years before 2026 were analyzed for With Action units. These projections were compared to the actual units gained, calculated by Map Property Land Use Tax Output (MapPLUTO) data.

Percentage deviations between actual units gained and With Action Units for the neighborhood upzonings were calculated to identify performance patterns relative to the With Action Scenario. Four covariates were also analyzed. Analysis by projected site was conducted for 22 major upzonings to evaluate performance. A limited econometric analysis was conducted.

The findings indicate that the top 40% of upzonings overperform the With Action Scenario, with systematic variation by covariates. For projected development sites, most underperform the scenario.

Collectively, these findings suggest that many development projections for upzonings may be understated and therefore fail to account for associated environmental impacts.

By providing the first retrospective assessment of projection accuracy for DCP Neighborhood Upzonings and consolidating projection data into a centralized dataset, this study provides resources for future planning analysis. The findings emphasize the need for projection methods that better incorporate macroeconomic conditions, decisions by smaller developers, and comparisons to upzonings which share fundamental characteristics.