2000 Articles

Seasonal forecasts of the dengue vector

Hopp, M.J.

Introduction. Dengue fever is considered the most important vector-borne viral disease in the world as it potentially affects 2.5 billion people in more than 100 tropical and sub-tropical countries (Fig. 1). Current estimates suggest that up to 50 million dengue cases occur annually, including 500,000 cases of the related illness, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). As no vaccine presently exists, the only method of controlling or preventing dengue and DHF is to combat the mosquito vector. This research examines the relationship between climate, the dengue vector, and reported numbers of dengue/DHF cases. It also presents preliminary results for generating seasonal forecasts of the dengue vector, by using a general circulation model's (EHCAM3.6) output to drive the mosquito model.