2016 Theses Master's

Internal migration and natural disasters in Mexico. A spatial modeling approach

Kim-Blanco, Paola

This study aims to investigate whether the frequency of natural disasters, or reported damages from disastrous events in rural areas, had an effect on internal migration in Mexico between 2010 and 2015. Spatial regression models are used to explain the associations between migration and explanatory factors. The results suggest that the frequency of natural disasters have a significant, spatial effect on internal migration. The models with the best fit for both in-migration and out-migration consider hazardous events as aggregates rather than individual events. This finding is similar to previous studies in emigration from 1990 and 2000 (Saldaña-Zorrilla et al., 2009). The data from reported damages of disastrous events in rural areas is not appropriate for spatial modeling, so no meaningful results were obtained in that regard.