2000 Reports

Current Approaches to Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions

Goddard, Lisa M.; Mason, Simon J.; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Ropelewski, Chester F.; Basher, Reid; Cane, Mark A.

This review paper presents an assessment of the current state of knowledge and capability in seasonal climate prediction at the end of the 20th century. The discussion covers the full range of issues involved in climate forecasting, including (1) the theory and empirical evidence for predictability; (2) predictions of surface boundary conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that drive the predictable part of the climate; (3) predictions of the climate; and (4) a brief consideration of the application of climate forecasts. Within this context, the research of the coming decades that seeks to address shortcomings in each area is described.