2010 Articles

Grades and Graduation: A Longitudinal Risk Perspective to Identify Student Dropouts

Bowers, Alex J.

Studies of student risk of school dropout have shown that current predictors of “at-risk” status do not accurately identify a large percentage of students who eventually dropout. Through the analysis of the entire grade 1-12 longitudinal cohort-based grading histories of the class of 2006 for two school districts in the United States, this study extends past longitudinal conceptions of dropout to a longitudinal risk perspective, using survival analysis, life tables and discrete-time hazard modeling to appropriately account for student graduation, transfer or dropout. The risk of dropout began in grade 7, with the most hazardous years at grades 8 and 11. A novel calculation of teacher assigned grades, non-cumulative GPA, is identified as a strong predictor of student dropout.