Anticipations, Recessions and Policy: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Model

Blanchard, Olivier J.; Sachs, Jeffrey D.

This paper presents an intertemporal disequilibrium model with rational expectations, i.e. a model in which agents anticipate the future rationally, but in which prices and wages may not adjust fast enough to maintain continuous market clearing. Therefore, optimizing firms and households base their intertemporal plans on anticipations of both future quantity constraints and future prices. Such a model shows clearly that the effect of a policy depends not only on its current values but its anticipated path, After a presentation of the model and its basic dynamics, we therefore consider the effects of various paths of fiscal policy on the economy.


More About This Work

Academic Units
Earth Institute
National Bureau of Economic Research
NBER Working Paper, 971
Published Here
September 29, 2009


This paper was prepared for the conference on "International Aspects of Macroeconomics in France," in Fontainebleau, July 1982. Published in Annales de l'Inséé, vol. 47-48 (July-December 1982), pp. 117-148.