2009 Articles

Practical implications of uncertainty in observed SSTs

Goddard, Lisa M.; Dewitt, David G.; Reynolds, Richard W.

Uncertainties in the accuracy of observed sea surface temperature (SST) estimates limit a number of efforts relevant to seasonal-to-interannual climate variability and its prediction. Some of the efforts that may be hampered by uncertain SSTs include estimates of skill in predicted SSTs, attribution studies of seasonal climate anomalies, and calibration of probabilistic seasonal climate forecast systems. This study examines the explicit impact of SST uncertainties on the climate response from an atmospheric general circulation model. Uncertainties in Western Pacific SSTs play a substantial role in the sensitivity of the seasonal climate.