1998 Reports

Why I expect Japan to prevail: Ruminations on Morishima

Patrick, Hugh T.

Michio Morishima is an eminent economic theorist and also an amateur cultural and intellectual historian of Japan. This is evident in his 1998 paper "Why Do I Expect Japan to Collapse?", which is the focus of the discussion here. The paper is most appropriately understood in the context of its intellectual heritage, Morishima's stimulating and controversial 1982 book, Why Has Japan "Succeeded"?. The book informs us about a number of major themes alluded to but, due to lack of space, not developed in the paper. The paper asks where Japan is likely to be in 2050, and why. As the contrasting titles suggest, Morishima seems to see a less shining future for Japan than he once did. His style is sometimes exaggerated, his terminology sometimes apocalyptic.