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Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters

Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.

Monthly U.S. tornado numbers are here related to observation-based monthly averaged atmospheric parameters. Poisson regression is used to form an index which captures the climatological spatial distribution and seasonal variation of tornado occurrence, as well as year-to-year variability, and provides a framework for extended range forecasts of tornado activity. Computing the same index with predicted atmospheric parameters from a comprehensive forecast model gives some evidence of the predictability of monthly tornado activity.

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Title
Geophysical Research Letters
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050368

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