2026 Reports

Estimating Tornado Risk for Child-Serving Institutions in a Future Climate Scenario

Sury, Jonathan; Schroder Searcy, Zoe; Fricker, Tyler; Hansen, Sean E.

The United States experiences more tornadoes than any other country, with the majority occurring in the Great Plains, Midwest, Mid-South, and Southeast. This research looks to use future tornado climatology to better understand the evolving nature of tornadoes and assess the shifting levels of exposure for child-serving institutions, including schools and child care centers. Using modeled tornado environments​​ under a future climate scenario, we estimate changes to tornado occurrence at the county-level and evaluate increasing or decreasing risk in conjunction with the number of child-serving institutions. The results of the modified Tornado Environment Index (TEI) highlight an expected increase in tornado risk across the United States by the end of the 21st century, with the increase most pronounced in the Great Plains, Mid-South, and Southeast, and the highest percent increase expected across already active areas. Other regions of the country that are not currently prone to high tornado activity, such as the Atlantic Coastal Plain, may also see an increase in tornado-favorable environments. Combining these findings with the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Building Code Adoption Tracking (BCAT) data, we determined that there are 7,820 schools, 9,720 child care centers, and 3,199,591 enrolled students under the baseline (1980-2014) TEI , with 8,484 schools, 8,761 child care centers, and 3,515,915 enrolled students under the mid-century (2041-2060) TEI and 7,083 schools, 8,743 child care centers, and 2,878,045 enrolled students under the end-century (2081-2100) TEI. These findings underscore that as tornado hazard shifts with an evolving climate, critical infrastructure, such as child-serving institutions, may lack adequate building codes to withstand deadly tornado wind speeds.

Keywords: Tornado, Natural Hazard, Climate Change, Schools, Child Care, Building Codes, Infrastructure, Tornado Shelters