2024 Theses Bachelor's

Crime Control or Redistribution?: How Crime Concerns Affected Voting Behavior in the 2022 Chilean Constitutional Plebiscite

Aguilar, Aidan

This study explores whether crime concerns contributed to the unexpectedly large margin of rejection in the 2022 Chilean Constitutional Plebiscite. Although the Draft Constitution aimed to address the economic concerns raised by the 2019 Social Unrest (Estallido Social), crime may have been perceived by low-income voters as a more tangible consideration. The study finds that, while crime concerns are associated with decreased support for the Draft Constitution, they do not necessarily shape the relationship between poverty and support for the Draft Constitution. In fact, I find limited evidence suggesting an already-existing negative relationship between poverty and support. Low-income voters therefore may have perceived the progressive draft as yet another example of Chilean political actors’ inability to understand the public’s priorities. However, the negative relationship between crime and support for the Draft Constitution appears to be channeled through support for President Gabriel Boric. Political cues thus seem to have played a pivotal role in the 2022 Plebiscite.