Theses Doctoral

Essays in Macroeconomics

Davitaya, Martsella

My dissertation combines structural macroeconomic models with analyses of macro and micro data and broadly contributes to two research agendas. The first relates to the channels through which monetary policy impacts the economy. The second aims to understand how heterogeneity observed at the micro level affects the economy.

The first two chapters, "Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Mortgage Refinancing" and "A Model of Heterogeneous Mortgage Refinancing," focus on the refinancing channel of monetary policy. Since fixed-rate mortgages are the most significant source of household debt in the U.S., monetary policy can stimulate household consumption and wealth by lowering mortgage costs through refinancing. The potency of this channel will depend on households’ outstanding mortgage rates, as well as their willingness and ability to refinance. I combine empirical patterns from monthly loan-level data (from joint work with A.Burya) and a heterogeneous agent model of mortgage refinancing to show that credit score heterogeneity dampens the aggregate consumption response to monetary policy by 11%.

The third and fourth chapters, "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: An Empirical Test" and "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: Role of Risk Premia," study the effectiveness of monetary policy in the U.S. by exploring the degree to which inflation expectations are anchored. If inflation expectations are well-anchored, then the Fed has a higher capacity to support aggregate employment when necessary, without destabilizing inflation. In joint work with A. Burya and S. Mishra, I construct a proxy of the change in the Fed's aggressiveness to inflation and develop an empirical test for inflation expectations anchoring. The proxy of the changes in the Fed's aggressiveness is equal to changes in expectations of future policy rates that are unexplained by the information contained in the inflation news release. The empirical test involves examining the sensitivity of inflation expectations to monetary policy shocks conditional on that proxy. I then use a measure of inflation expectations adjusted for inflation and liquidity risk premia to demonstrate that bond yield data in the U.S. is consistent with the anchoring of the long-term inflation expectations.

Geographic Areas


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More About This Work

Academic Units
Thesis Advisors
Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Hassan
Ph.D., Columbia University
Published Here
April 12, 2023