2008 Theses Master's

Non-linear Estimation of the Impacts of Climate Change: the Case of Corn and Soybeans Crop Yields in Brazil

Corsini Leao, Andre

The objective of this paper is to estimate the relationship between weather and yields of two major agricultural cultures in Brazil: corn and soybeans. Based on the methodology of Schlenker and Roberts (2006), it was found that an increase of 5oF in the yearly average temperatures is associated with a decrease of 12.8% for corn yields and 9.3% for soybeans yields. Another important finding is that, similar to the USA, an asymmetric relationship between weather and crop yields was found: after a certain threshold (between 91o F and 96o F for corn and above 96o F for soybeans), temperatures start to be increasingly harmful to yields.

Keywords: Climate change, Non-linear temperature effects, Brazilian agriculture, Soybeans production, Corn production.