2025 Theses Master's

Mapping Micro-Scale Heat Risk in New York City: A Fine-Grained Index Incorporating Adaptive Capacity

Wei, Miaojing

Extreme heat poses a significant public health risk in urban areas, intensified by climate change. Effective responses require detailed assessments of heat risk at fine spatial scales. Conventional heat risk assessments, often conducted at broad community levels, overlook critical micro-scale variations in heat exposure and adaptive capacity. This study introduces a fine-grained Urban Heat Risk Index incorporating Adaptive Capacity (UHRI-AC), using a 30-meter spatial resolution in New York City.

The analysis integrates Landsat-derived land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), population density, and socioeconomic factors representing adaptive capacity. Results illustrate significant spatial variability in heat risk within urban neighborhoods, revealing localized hotspots of elevated heat exposure and limited adaptive capacity even within areas previously classified as lower-risk. Comparative analysis with existing community-level heat indices underscores the necessity and advantage of fine-resolution mapping in identifying vulnerable areas missed by coarser methods.

Crucially, many micro-scale hotspots identified are located in socioeconomically disadvantaged communities, highlighting critical environmental justice concerns. This study demonstrates the importance of detailed, micro-level heat risk assessments for urban climate resilience planning, offering a methodological framework to promote equitable and targeted urban heat mitigation interventions.

Keywords: Micro-scale urban heat, Adaptive capacity, Heat-exposure mapping, Remote-sensing indices, Land-surface temperature (LST), NDVI, Urban heat-island, Environmental justice, Fine-scale spatial analysis, New York City