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How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us About Inflation?

Jessie Handbury; Tsutomu Watanabe; David E. Weinstein

Title:
How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us About Inflation?
Author(s):
Handbury, Jessie
Watanabe, Tsutomu
Weinstein, David E.
Date:
Type:
Working papers
Department:
Center on Japanese Economy and Business
Permanent URL:
Series:
Center on Japanese Economy and Business Working Papers
Part Number:
330
Abstract:
Official price indexes, such as the CPI, are imperfect indicators of inflation calculated using ad hoc price formulae different from the theoretically well-founded inflation indexes favored by economists. This paper provides the first estimate of how accurately the CPI informs us about “true” inflation. We use the largest price and quantity dataset ever employed in economics to build a Törnqvist inflation index for Japan between 1989 and 2010. Our comparison of this true inflation index with the CPI indicates that the CPI bias is not constant but depends on the level of inflation. We show the informativeness of the CPI rises with inflation. When measured inflation is low (less than 2.4% per year) the CPI is a poor predictor of true inflation even over 12-month periods. Outside this range, the CPI is a much better measure of inflation. We find that the U.S. PCE Deflator methodology is superior to the Japanese CPI methodology but still exhibits substantial measurement error and biases rendering it a problematic predictor of inflation in low inflation regimes as well.
Subject(s):
Economics
Item views:
627
Metadata:
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