Title:

India: Election Outcomes and Economic Performance

Author(s):

Gupta, Poonam
Panagariya, Arvind

Date:

2011

Type:

Working papers

Department:

Program on Indian Economic Policies

Permanent URL:

http://hdl.handle.net/10022/AC:P:10825

Series:

Program on Indian Economic Policies Working Papers

Part Number:

2011-4

Publisher:

School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University

Publisher Location:

New York

Abstract:

In this paper we provide the first analysis of the relationship of growth to election outcomes in India. Using a comprehensive data set consisting of all candidates contesting the election, we also provide the first systematic quantitative analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Our key result is that superior growth performance at the level of the state gives a definite advantage to the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. Conversely, poor growth performance of a state is associated with poor electoral performance by the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. We offer two additional results: personal characteristics such as education and wealth have at most a small impact on election outcomes; and, at least in the 2009 election, incumbency at all levels contributed positively to election prospects of a candidate.

Subject(s):

Economics
Political science

Item views:

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