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India: Election Outcomes and Economic Performance

Poonam Gupta; Arvind Panagariya

Title:
India: Election Outcomes and Economic Performance
Author(s):
Gupta, Poonam
Panagariya, Arvind
Date:
Type:
Working papers
Department:
Program on Indian Economic Policies
Permanent URL:
Series:
Program on Indian Economic Policies Working Papers
Part Number:
2011-4
Publisher:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Publisher Location:
New York
Abstract:
In this paper we provide the first analysis of the relationship of growth to election outcomes in India. Using a comprehensive data set consisting of all candidates contesting the election, we also provide the first systematic quantitative analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Our key result is that superior growth performance at the level of the state gives a definite advantage to the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. Conversely, poor growth performance of a state is associated with poor electoral performance by the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. We offer two additional results: personal characteristics such as education and wealth have at most a small impact on election outcomes; and, at least in the 2009 election, incumbency at all levels contributed positively to election prospects of a candidate.
Subject(s):
Economics
Political science
Item views:
601
Metadata:
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