WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en 00:00:00.560 --> 00:00:06.400 I'd like to now hand it over to Deborah Salon who  is coming to us from Arizona State University.   00:00:07.520 --> 00:00:09.040 Please go ahead and share your screen. 00:00:11.120 --> 00:00:22.000 Thanks so much. Here we go. I'm an Associate  Professor here at the School of Geographical   00:00:22.000 --> 00:00:26.480 Sciences and Urban Planning at ASU [Arizona  State University] and together with colleagues   00:00:26.480 --> 00:00:34.320 at the University of Illinois at Chicago and folks  here we have been working on trying to understand   00:00:35.840 --> 00:00:41.680 behavioral changes in households  between you know before the pandemic to   00:00:41.680 --> 00:00:46.640 during the pandemic and also how people expect  any behavioral changes that they might have   00:00:46.640 --> 00:00:52.480 experienced during the pandemic to perhaps  persist even after the pandemic is no longer   00:00:53.040 --> 00:00:58.320 a threat. So that's what I'll be talking  about today. We were funded through a RAPID   00:00:58.320 --> 00:01:01.520 grant through the CMMI [Civil, Mechanical  and Manufacturing Innovation] program at   00:01:01.520 --> 00:01:06.080 NSF [National Science Foundation] and a few other  places as well have helped support this work. 00:01:07.120 --> 00:01:15.760 So COVID-19 has required most of us to really make  big changes to our daily lives and our research is   00:01:15.760 --> 00:01:19.920 trying to understand both what those  changes were how large they were and also,   00:01:19.920 --> 00:01:24.080 but perhaps more importantly, will some  of these new behaviors really stick? 00:01:24.080 --> 00:01:29.680 So we conducted a national survey. The  survey we call the COVIDFUTURE Survey   00:01:29.680 --> 00:01:36.960 and you can learn a lot more about our  work at our website www.covidfuture.org 00:01:38.000 --> 00:01:41.120 This is just to show you I'm  obviously not alone. I have a   00:01:42.160 --> 00:01:47.360 working with a large research team. This doesn't  even actually we've added more more team members   00:01:47.360 --> 00:01:51.840 recently so this is not even fully representative  of the group. It's a big it's a big effort. 00:01:53.200 --> 00:01:58.720 The survey we've collected we've  one of the full wave one of the   00:01:58.720 --> 00:02:01.520 surveys, it's a multi-wave survey.  The full wave one was nearly 10,000   00:02:02.560 --> 00:02:09.200 respondents from across the US. Today I'll be  reporting results on a subset of those people,   00:02:10.480 --> 00:02:16.480 a bit over 7000 of them. So the survey sections-  we're transportation researchers most of us   00:02:16.480 --> 00:02:22.800 and so we were interested in how this pandemic  has affected transportation related behaviors.   00:02:22.800 --> 00:02:26.800 Actually, I was quite interested in the previous  presentation thinking about movement, you know.   00:02:26.800 --> 00:02:34.640 But anyhow our survey looks at how people are  accessing these different activities: employment   00:02:34.640 --> 00:02:39.440 working and studying shopping and dining, how  they you know conduct their transportation on   00:02:40.000 --> 00:02:45.600 on a daily basis during the pandemic  pandemic, and expectations for the future. 00:02:46.800 --> 00:02:49.040 The survey took between 15 and 30 minutes. 00:02:49.760 --> 00:02:55.360 It was- wave one was implemented starting in  April of 2020 and went through October. The   00:02:55.360 --> 00:03:01.440 data I'll be presenting today is really more from  the July through October period. That sample size   00:03:01.440 --> 00:03:05.920 was about 9000. We've actually collected  an additional around thousand since then. 00:03:05.920 --> 00:03:10.720 Wave two was implemented from  November to April. About 3000 people   00:03:10.720 --> 00:03:15.680 responded to that. I'll just make a couple of  comments on what we found in wave two today,   00:03:15.680 --> 00:03:17.840 but I don't have any formal findings on that. 00:03:18.480 --> 00:03:22.880 Wave three we're going to be implementing in about  a month starting mid-September to mid-October   00:03:23.840 --> 00:03:27.600 and we're currently applying for funding to  conduct two or three additional survey waves.   00:03:27.600 --> 00:03:33.920 We had originally imagined that one year would be  enough time to- or maybe a year and a half would   00:03:33.920 --> 00:03:38.240 be enough time to really understand the effect  you know during the pandemic and post-pandemic   00:03:38.240 --> 00:03:43.600 but obviously that has not unfortunately  happened and so to understand the more   00:03:43.600 --> 00:03:49.120 long-term impact on people's behavior we really  need to continue following folks into the future. 00:03:50.320 --> 00:03:52.960 Just to give you an idea of  where our respondents came from.   00:03:52.960 --> 00:03:58.160 They're from all over the US although there is  an over-representation in Arizona as you can see. 00:04:00.000 --> 00:04:04.560 We do- you know to account for regional  differences and also differences   00:04:04.560 --> 00:04:09.760 between our sample and the US population  as a whole, we do use a weighting scheme   00:04:09.760 --> 00:04:14.560 and these are the main variables we  wait on plus region of the country. 00:04:16.960 --> 00:04:22.800 More details about a lot of the results I'll  be presenting in a minute are available in our   00:04:22.800 --> 00:04:28.240 recently published brief report in the Proceedings  of the National Academy of Sciences and I'll put   00:04:28.240 --> 00:04:31.840 a link to that. It's open access so I'll put  a link in the chat after this presentation. 00:04:33.120 --> 00:04:40.640 So a couple of things. One of the big questions we  had was really you know would you like to continue   00:04:40.640 --> 00:04:46.320 any of the things that you're doing now after  COVID-19 is no longer a threat? And this   00:04:46.320 --> 00:04:53.600 is a pie chart just showing how people answered  that question. And we were maybe not surprised   00:04:53.600 --> 00:05:01.040 but interested to see that the vast majority  said either yes or maybe to this question. 00:05:01.040 --> 00:05:06.880 So there are definitely some things that  people are experiencing during this crisis time   00:05:06.880 --> 00:05:12.560 that they find that they like and that they  might want to continue. And so here's just   00:05:12.560 --> 00:05:19.040 a chart showing what some of those things were  and the top thing is WFH means works from home   00:05:19.040 --> 00:05:24.000 working from home at least some of the time,  but you can see some of these other items are   00:05:24.000 --> 00:05:26.800 perhaps some of the things you've  been enjoying during the pandemic:   00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:31.440 spending more time with family, taking more walks,  spending less money, cooking a bit more etc. 00:05:33.840 --> 00:05:38.080 So just honing in on a couple of these  main results. So working from home-   00:05:38.080 --> 00:05:42.560 our data forecast not only that  we've seen a large increase in   00:05:42.560 --> 00:05:48.400 working from home but they forecast a large  continuation of increased work from home.   00:05:49.440 --> 00:05:54.480 So you can see here the pre-COIVD, actual  percentage was about 23 percent of people   00:05:54.480 --> 00:05:58.720 work from home at least a few times a month. So  these aren't people that work from home every day   00:05:58.720 --> 00:06:05.680 but regularly and somewhat frequently. So then  that has gone up to over 40 percent during the   00:06:06.400 --> 00:06:12.320 COVID period and people expect to continue this.  Now, this is a little misleading that there isn't   00:06:12.320 --> 00:06:16.960 that much of a drop here because these people  are working from home mostly almost every day   00:06:16.960 --> 00:06:22.080 whereas this percentage is more of an indication  of like a couple times a week is more of what   00:06:22.080 --> 00:06:26.400 people are generally saying, but in any case  people are planning to continue this behavior. 00:06:27.840 --> 00:06:30.560 This chart shows a little bit more detail on that,   00:06:31.200 --> 00:06:33.840 but I don't think I have time  to go into it that much more. 00:06:35.600 --> 00:06:41.040 Looking at a second kind of related big behavior  that we're very interested in is car commuting.   00:06:41.040 --> 00:06:48.240 So, we see that our data forecasts a related  decrease in car commuting perhaps which is-   00:06:49.120 --> 00:06:53.520 you know if people are working from home at least  a couple days a week, you can imagine that this   00:06:53.520 --> 00:06:57.040 would happen right they're commuting a couple  days less so that's what this is reflecting. 00:06:59.120 --> 00:07:05.280 We asked a lot of our questions and about what  they expect in the future and then we asked why.   00:07:06.240 --> 00:07:11.520 And so this is an example of kind of the type of  question we were asking looking at you know if   00:07:11.520 --> 00:07:17.600 people said they anticipated to be traveling  less by air after COVID-19 was no longer a   00:07:17.600 --> 00:07:23.120 threat. We said well why? And gave them a bunch  of possible reasons that they could select from. 00:07:23.120 --> 00:07:28.880 And then we divided those reasons into things  that were like new realizations like I realized   00:07:28.880 --> 00:07:35.600 I could conduct my business meetings using video  conferencing or pandemic related reasons which   00:07:35.600 --> 00:07:42.080 were more like oh I don't want to fly because I'm  worried about getting sick right. So we think that   00:07:42.080 --> 00:07:47.120 these new realizations might be more long lasting  than the pandemic related reasons for a lot of   00:07:47.120 --> 00:07:51.600 people but in any case what we can see here is  that the blue which is the new realization is   00:07:51.600 --> 00:07:56.080 the darker blue the things that were sort of  neutral is the the medium blue and then the   00:07:56.080 --> 00:08:01.200 light blue is the pandemic related reasons that  we think might disappear if COVID-19 really does   00:08:01.200 --> 00:08:05.680 become not a threat. But in any case we can see on  the business side there's a lot of people saying   00:08:05.680 --> 00:08:11.840 they're going to be flying. Less not so much on  the personal appliance side but a little bit. 00:08:14.240 --> 00:08:18.880 And the last- or maybe not the last one of  the last things I wanted to talk about was   00:08:19.680 --> 00:08:23.360 mentioning that one thing. You know  in the earlier slide I was saying-   00:08:24.160 --> 00:08:26.960 highlighting things that people said  they wanted to keep from the pandemic   00:08:27.520 --> 00:08:31.760 time period and one of the things was  taking more walks and that's reflected in   00:08:32.640 --> 00:08:37.760 another aspect of the survey where we asked people  you know how often they wanted to do different-   00:08:37.760 --> 00:08:43.280 use different modes of transportation. And a lot  of people said that they wanted to walk more. 00:08:44.800 --> 00:08:47.040 The next slide shows a little more detail on this. 00:08:48.400 --> 00:08:51.760 And then I think this is really the last thing  I was going to talk about which is dining and   00:08:51.760 --> 00:08:57.520 shopping. So we asked about how many times  people dined in restaurants pre-COVID and how   00:08:57.520 --> 00:09:03.200 many times they expected to dine in restaurants  you know on a weekly or monthly basis post-COVID.   00:09:03.200 --> 00:09:07.040 And you can see that these frequent diners-  the people who said they dine in restaurants   00:09:07.040 --> 00:09:13.200 a few times a week or more are really expected  to drop and that's something that I think is   00:09:14.560 --> 00:09:16.720 likely of concern to the restaurant industry. 00:09:20.080 --> 00:09:25.040 And so not only can you find more  information about our survey and   00:09:25.040 --> 00:09:29.280 our publications at covidfuture.org  but there's also a link to our data   00:09:29.280 --> 00:09:34.160 which is freely available for download. Right  now wave one is available we'll be posting   00:09:34.160 --> 00:09:40.400 wave two in the coming weeks and wave three once  we've collected it and cleaned it and weighted it. 00:09:40.400 --> 00:09:44.400 So thanks so much and let me know and  look forward to conversation later. 00:09:46.080 --> 00:09:50.000 Thank you so much Deborah and it's really  interesting to hear that there is already like   00:09:50.000 --> 00:09:55.200 a little bit of a dialogue and an overlap between  some of the work you're doing and from Zhenlong   00:09:55.200 --> 00:09:58.859 who you know went right before you did. So that's-  I mean that's the whole point of the CIC [COVID   00:09:58.859 --> 00:10:02.240 Information Commons] webinar and we're so glad  to see those connections happening in real time.