- Parameter Shrinkage for Age-Period-Cohort Modeling of Opioid Mortality Rates
- Venter, Gary
- School of Professional Studies
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- Statistical methods that shrink parameters towards zero can produce lower predictive variance than does maximum likelihood. This paper discusses an approach to doing this for age-period-cohort models, and applies it to fitting opioid mortality rates with a generalization of the Lee-Carter model including cohorts. Bayesian parameter shrinkage has some practical advantages over classical versions.
- Actuarial science
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