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Recent and future changes in the Asian monsoon-ENSO relationship: Natural or forced?

Xiaoqiong Li; Mingfang Ting

Title:
Recent and future changes in the Asian monsoon-ENSO relationship: Natural or forced?
Author(s):
Li, Xiaoqiong
Ting, Mingfang
Date:
Type:
Articles
Department(s):
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Volume:
42
Persistent URL:
Book/Journal Title:
Geophysical Research Letters
Geographic Area:
Asia
Pacific Ocean--El Niño Current
Notes:
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory contribution number 7891.
Abstract:
The Asian monsoon-ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) relationship in the 20th and 21st centuries is examined using observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. CMIP5 models can simulate the ENSO-monsoon spatial structure reasonably well when using the multimodel mean. Running correlations show prominent decadal variability of the ENSO-monsoon relationship in observations. The modeled ENSO-monsoon relation shows large intermodel spread, indicating large variations across the model ensemble. The anthropogenically forced component of ENSO-monsoon relationship is separated from the naturally varying component based on a signal-to-noise maximizing empirical orthogonal function analysis using global sea surface temperature (SST). Results show that natural variability plays a dominant role in the varied ENSO-monsoon relationship during the 20th century. In the 21st century, the forced component is dominated by enhanced monsoon rainfall associated with SST warming, which may contribute to a slightly weakened ENSO-monsoon relation in the future.
Subject(s):
Monsoons
Southern oscillation
Climatic changes
Climatic changes--Models
Publisher DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063557
Item views
105
Metadata:
text | xml
Suggested Citation:
Xiaoqiong Li, Mingfang Ting, , Recent and future changes in the Asian monsoon-ENSO relationship: Natural or forced?, Columbia University Academic Commons, .

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