HomeHome

Mechanisms of Asian Summer Monsoon Changes in Response to Anthropogenic Forcing in CMIP5 Models

Xiaoqiong Li; Mingfang Ting; Cuihua Li; Naomi L. Henderson

Title:
Mechanisms of Asian Summer Monsoon Changes in Response to Anthropogenic Forcing in CMIP5 Models
Author(s):
Li, Xiaoqiong
Ting, Mingfang
Li, Cuihua
Henderson, Naomi L.
Date:
Type:
Articles
Department(s):
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Volume:
28
Persistent URL:
Book/Journal Title:
Journal of Climate
Geographic Area:
Asia
Notes:
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Contribution Number 7881.
Abstract:
Changes of the Asian summer monsoon in response to anthropogenic forcing are examined using observations and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel, multirealization ensemble. In the twentieth century, CMIP5 models indicate a predominantly drying Asian monsoon, while in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, monsoon rainfall enhances across the entire Asian domain. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the changes are evaluated using specific humidity and winds, as well as the moisture budget. The drying trend in the CMIP5 historical simulations and the wetting trend in the RCP8.5 projections can be explained by the relative importance of dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to the total mean moisture convergence. While the thermodynamic mechanism dominates in the future, the historical rainfall changes are dominated by the changes in circulation. The relative contributions of aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the historical monsoon change are further examined using CMIP5 single-forcing simulations. Rainfall reduces under aerosol forcing and increases under GHG forcing. Aerosol forcing dominates over the greenhouse effect during the historical period, leading to the general drying trend in the all-forcing simulations. While the thermodynamic change of mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the GHG forcing, the dynamic change of mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the aerosol forcing.
Subject(s):
Monsoons
Climatic changes--Effect of human beings on
Climatic changes
Climatic changes--Models
Publisher DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00559.1
Item views
78
Metadata:
text | xml
Suggested Citation:
Xiaoqiong Li, Mingfang Ting, Cuihua Li, Naomi L. Henderson, , Mechanisms of Asian Summer Monsoon Changes in Response to Anthropogenic Forcing in CMIP5 Models, Columbia University Academic Commons, .

Columbia University Libraries | Policies | FAQ