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Conjunction of factors triggering waves of seasonal influenza

Ishanu Chattopadhyay; Emre Kiciman; Joshua W. Elliott; Jeffrey L. Shaman; Andrey Rzhetsky

Title:
Conjunction of factors triggering waves of seasonal influenza
Author(s):
Chattopadhyay, Ishanu
Kiciman, Emre
Elliott, Joshua W.
Shaman, Jeffrey L.
Rzhetsky, Andrey
Date:
Type:
Articles
Department(s):
Environmental Health Sciences
Volume:
7
Persistent URL:
Book/Journal Title:
eLife
Abstract:
Using several longitudinal datasets describing putative factors affecting influenza incidence and clinical data on the disease and health status of over 150 million human subjects observed over a decade, we investigated the source and the mechanistic triggers of influenza epidemics. We conclude that the initiation of a pan-continental influenza wave emerges from the simultaneous realization of a complex set of conditions. The strongest predictor groups are as follows, ranked by importance: (1) the host population’s socio- and ethno-demographic properties; (2) weather variables pertaining to specific humidity, temperature, and solar radiation; (3) the virus’ antigenic drift over time; (4) the host population’€™s land-based travel habits, and; (5) recent spatio-temporal dynamics, as reflected in the influenza wave auto-correlation. The models we infer are demonstrably predictive (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve 80%) when tested with out-of-sample data, opening the door to the potential formulation of new population-level intervention and mitigation policies.
Subject(s):
Epidemiology
Influenza--Epidemiology
Public health
Epidemics
Environmental health
Publisher DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.30756
Item views
9
Metadata:
text | xml
Suggested Citation:
Ishanu Chattopadhyay, Emre Kiciman, Joshua W. Elliott, Jeffrey L. Shaman, Andrey Rzhetsky, , Conjunction of factors triggering waves of seasonal influenza, Columbia University Academic Commons, .

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