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Multimodel Ensembling in Seasonal Climate Forecasting at IRI

Anthony G. Barnston; Simon J. Mason; Lisa M. Goddard; David G. Dewitt; Stephen E. Zebiak

Title:
Multimodel Ensembling in Seasonal Climate Forecasting at IRI
Author(s):
Barnston, Anthony G.
Mason, Simon J.
Goddard, Lisa M.
Dewitt, David G.
Zebiak, Stephen E.
Date:
Type:
Articles
Department(s):
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Volume:
84
Persistent URL:
Book/Journal Title:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Abstract:
The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction seasonal forecast system is based largely on the predictions of ensembles of several atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by two versions of an SST prediction—one consisting of persisted SST anomalies from the current observations and one of evolving SST anomalies as predicted by a set of dynamical and statistical SST prediction models. Recently, an objective multimodel ensembling procedure has replaced a more laborious and subjective weighting of the predictions of the several AGCMs. Here the skills of the multimodel predictions produced retrospectively over the first 4 years of IRI forecasts are examined and compared with the skills of the more subjectively derived forecasts actually issued. The multimodel ensemble predictions are generally found to be an acceptable replacement, although the precipitation forecasts do benefit from inclusion of empirical forecast tools. Planned pattern-level model output statistics (MOS) corrections for systematic biases in the AGCM forecasts may render them more sufficient in their own right.
Subject(s):
Atmospheric circulation--Models
Climatic changes--Forecasting
Atmosphere
Publisher DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-12-1783
Item views
210
Metadata:
text | xml
Suggested Citation:
Anthony G. Barnston, Simon J. Mason, Lisa M. Goddard, David G. Dewitt, Stephen E. Zebiak, , Multimodel Ensembling in Seasonal Climate Forecasting at IRI, Columbia University Academic Commons, .

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