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Discussion of: A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?

Jason E. Smerdon

Title:
Discussion of: A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?
Author(s):
Smerdon, Jason E.
Date:
Type:
Articles
Department:
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Volume:
5
Persistent URL:
Book/Journal Title:
Annals of Applied Statistics
Abstract:
McShane and Wyner [(2011); hereinafter MW11] reiterate a well-known and central challenge of paleoclimatology: it is fraught with uncertainties and based on noisy observations. Decades of research have aimed at characterizing these uncertainties and interpreting proxies through laboratory experiments, field observations, theory, process-based modeling, cross-record comparisons, and indeed through statistical modeling and hypothesis testing. It is against this larger backdrop that the problem addressed by MW11 must be considered. Attempts to reconstruct global or hemispheric temperature indices and fields using multi-proxy networks are an outgrowth of many efforts in paleoclimatology, but represent relatively recent pursuits in the field. They provide neither the principal scientific evidence supporting climate-proxy connections, nor the most compelling, and the inference by MW11 that their own findings demonstrate a widespread failure in the predictive capacity of climate proxies is at odds with most other independent lines of proxy research.
Subject(s):
Paleoclimate science
Climate change
Publisher DOI:
10.1214/10-AOAS398B
Item views
279
Metadata:
text | xml
Suggested Citation:
Jason E. Smerdon, 2011, Discussion of: A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?, Columbia University Academic Commons, http://hdl.handle.net/10022/AC:P:10869.

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