From Aggregate Betting Data to Individual Risk Preferences
Chiappori
Pierre A.
author
Columbia University. Economics
Salanie
Bernard
author
Columbia University. Economics
Salanie
Francois
author
Gandhi
Amit
author
Columbia University. Economics
originator
contributor
text
Working papers
New York
Department of Economics, Columbia University
2012
As a textbook model of contingent markets, horse races are an attractive environment to study the attitudes towards risk of bettors. We innovate on the literature by explicitly considering heterogeneous bettors and allowing for very general risk preferences, including non-expected utility. We build on a standard single-crossing condition on preferences to derive testable implications; and we show how parimutuel data allow us to uniquely identify the distribution of preferences among the population of bettors. We then estimate the model on data from US races. Within the expected utility class, the most usual specfications (CARA and CRRA) fit the data very badly. Our results show evidence for both heterogeneity and nonlinear probability weighting.
Economics
Department of Economics Discussion Papers
1213-08
http://hdl.handle.net/10022/AC:P:15210
English
NNC
NNC
2012-11-07 12:00:31 -0500
2012-11-07 12:06:27 -0500
9212
eng