Home

Interannual prediction of the Paraná River

Andrew W. Robertson; Carlos R. Mechoso; Norberto O. Garcia

Title:
Interannual prediction of the Paraná River
Author(s):
Robertson, Andrew W.
Mechoso, Carlos R.
Garcia, Norberto O.
Date:
Type:
Articles
Department:
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Volume:
28
Permanent URL:
Book/Journal Title:
Geophysical Research Letters
Abstract:
Interannual‐to‐decadal predictability of the Paraná river in South America is investigated by extracting near‐cyclic components in summer‐season streamflows at Corrientes over the period 1904–1997. It is found that oscillatory components with periods of about 2–5, 8 and 17 years are accompanied by statistically significant changes in monthly streamflow. Autoregressive predictive models are constructed for each component. Cross‐validated categorical hindcasts based on the 8‐yr predicted component are found to yield some skill up to four years in advance for below‐average flows. A prediction based upon the 8‐ and 17‐yr components including data up to 1999 suggests increased probability of below‐average flows until 2006.
Subject(s):
Meteorology
Publisher DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012197
Item views:
57
Metadata:
text | xml

In Partnership with the Center for Digital Research and Scholarship at Columbia University Libraries/Information Services | Terms of Use