Title:

The Japanese economy: Sustained recovery and growth not yet assured

Author(s):

Patrick, Hugh T.

Date:

2005

Type:

Working papers

Department:

Center on Japanese Economy and Business

Permanent URL:

http://hdl.handle.net/10022/AC:P:136

Series:

Center on Japanese Economy and Business Working Papers

Part Number:

230

Publisher:

Center on Japanese Economy and Business, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University

Publisher Location:

New York

Abstract:

This paper reviews Japan's recent economic performance through the summer of 2004. It notes the strong cyclical recovery and its slowdown. I note several problems about the economic data, particularly about the GDP deflation's bias which results in an overestimate of real GDP growth by about 1 percent point. I consider inadequate aggregate demand; persisting deflation and monetary policy; unemployment and underemployment, adversely affecting the young particularly; ongoing financial system reform; government economic policy; longer run growth and economic transformation; and changes in corporate governance. The key issue is whether the generally positive economic ending has finally put Japan onto the path of self-sustained growth. I am cautiously skeptical; it depends whether growth in 2005 is close to 3 percent or to 1 percent.

Subject(s):

Economics, Commerce-Business

Item views:

161

Metadata:

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