The Japanese economy: Sustained recovery and growth not yet assured
Hugh T. Patrick
- The Japanese economy: Sustained recovery and growth not yet assured
- Patrick, Hugh T.
- Working papers
- Center on Japanese Economy and Business
- Permanent URL:
- Center on Japanese Economy and Business Working Papers
- Part Number:
- Center on Japanese Economy and Business, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University
- Publisher Location:
- New York
- This paper reviews Japan's recent economic performance through the summer of 2004. It notes the strong cyclical recovery and its slowdown. I note several problems about the economic data, particularly about the GDP deflation's bias which results in an overestimate of real GDP growth by about 1 percent point. I consider inadequate aggregate demand; persisting deflation and monetary policy; unemployment and underemployment, adversely affecting the young particularly; ongoing financial system reform; government economic policy; longer run growth and economic transformation; and changes in corporate governance. The key issue is whether the generally positive economic ending has finally put Japan onto the path of self-sustained growth. I am cautiously skeptical; it depends whether growth in 2005 is close to 3 percent or to 1 percent.
- Economics, Commerce-Business
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